The Dragon's Eye on Taiwan: The truth behind the China-Taiwan dispute

 

The Dragon's Eye on Taiwan: Is Asia at risk of a world war? Is the world heading toward another war? The truth behind the China-Taiwan dispute

In this blog, we'll explore the China-Taiwan dispute. Why China claims Taiwan, and why Taiwan rejects it.
China has consistently asserted sovereignty over Taiwan. It considers Taiwan part of its territory and insists on reunification, even through the use of force if necessary. The United States has shown increasing readiness to support and defend Taiwan.

Introduction to Taiwan

Taiwan is a small island country located in the East and South China Seas, sandwiched between the East China Sea and the South China Sea. It is approximately 160 kilometers from China. Taiwan is separated from China by the Taiwan Strait.

Its neighbors include China to the north, Japan to the south, and the Philippines to the south.

The capital of Taiwan is Taipei City, located in its northern part. Its population is approximately 23.9 million.

Taiwan's area is approximately 35,808 square kilometers (13,826 square miles), with approximately two-thirds of it covered by mountains. Due to Taiwan's lack of flat land, most of its population is concentrated in a small area, making it a highly urbanized country.

What is Taiwan known for in the world?

Taiwan is known worldwide for its cutting-edge and high-tech semiconductor chip manufacturing. Today, Taiwan alone produces approximately 90% of the world's high-tech semiconductor chips.

Taiwan manufactures chips for global companies such as Apple, Inc., NVIDIA, and Qualcomm. Taiwan's largest semiconductor manufacturer is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

What is a semiconductor?

A semiconductor is a tiny chip found in almost every electronic device today. It's used in almost every electronic device, from spacecraft to defense equipment, cars, computers, mobile phones, televisions, air conditioners, refrigerators, microwaves, medical equipment, MRI machines, and robots.
Without semiconductor chips, it's nearly impossible to manufacture any electronic device or gadget today.

History of Taiwan

Taiwan has been inhabited by indigenous people for thousands of years. However, during the European exploration of the world in the 16th and 17th centuries, Portuguese explorers discovered the island and named it "Formosa." The Dutch then conquered it in 1624 and established a colony. They also began importing people from China to work there.

Then, in 1683, the Qing dynasty of China defeated the Dutch and took control of Taiwan, and migration of Han Chinese from the mainland rapidly increased. Later, in 1885, Taiwan was officially declared a province of the Qing Empire.

 But the Qing dynasty was defeated in the Sino-Japanese War of 1895, after which the Qing government ceded Taiwan to Japan.

By that time, Japan had achieved rapid industrial development, while China had not. As a result, China was defeated. After this, Taiwan remained a Japanese colony for the next 50 years. That is, until the end of World War II in 1945 and the collapse of the Japanese Empire, Taiwan was essentially a Japanese colony, just as India was a British colony. During this period, infrastructure (railways, education, and industry) on the island developed rapidly.

After Japan's defeat in World War II, representatives of the Republic of China government accepted the surrender of the Japanese forces in Taiwan, and Taiwan again came under Chinese control.

The main reason for the beginning of the China-Taiwan conflict and the root of this conflict -

The Chinese Civil War is considered the beginning and main cause of the China–Taiwan dispute.

The Chinese Civil War (1927-1949) was primarily caused by a bitter ideological battle between the Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Both parties were at odds over who would rule China and what kind of ideology would prevail in China. This conflict was primarily between two parties: the Communist Party (People's Republic of China) led by Mao Zedong, and the Nationalist government (Kuomintang/KMT).

At that time, the majority of China's population lived in rural areas, and a large number of peasants were extremely poor. Wealthy landowners owned very little land, while millions of peasants worked on other people's land and were burdened with heavy taxes and debt.

The Chinese Communist Party took advantage of this situation. The party promised peasants that if they supported them, the landlords' surplus land would be distributed among the poor peasants. This was called "Land Reform." The Communists also began distributing land in many areas. This gave poor peasants the first feeling that a political power was directly addressing their interests. On the other hand, the Kuomintang government was facing accusations of corruption, bribery, and favoritism toward the wealthy.

Millions of peasants living in the villages therefore began providing the Communist Party with food, troops, and local support. This rural support later became the Communist Party's greatest strength in the civil war,

leading to its victory in China.

After the Communist victory in 1949, the Nationalist government fled to Taiwan and established the Republic of China (ROC), while the CPC declared the People's Republic of China (PRC) in Mainland China. Note that the Republic of China (ROC) established its government in Taiwan, while the People's Republic of China (PRC) was established in China. The two are distinct entities.

When Mao Zedong took power in Mainland China, approximately two million Chinese Nationalists opposed to Communism fled to Taiwan.

This marked the beginning of the "White Terror," which lasted until 1991. During this repressive period, which lasted from 1949 to 1987, when martial law was imposed in Taiwan, thousands of people were arrested, imprisoned, or executed on suspicion of being Communists or opposing the government. On August 23, 1958, a heavy artillery battle broke out between the Taiwan Army and Chinese forces stationed in Kinmen, lasting more than 40 days.

The current disputed status is a direct result of the Chinese Civil War, in which the defeated Nationalist government (Kuomintang/KMT) fled mainland China for Taiwan in 1949. At that time, it accepted, but did not endorse, the PRC's "One China" policy.

 

Reasons for China's claim on Taiwan

Today, the island of Taiwan is considered by China to be an integral part of traditional Chinese territory, having been under the rule of the Qing dynasty. In contrast, the Taiwanese people and leadership maintain that they operate under their own autonomous system. China considers Taiwan a "rebellious province" and claims it as its own, while Taiwan operates as a sovereign nation.

Apart from this, there are some other reasons due to which China considers Taiwan as its part.

There are many historical, political, military, and economic reasons behind China's claim to Taiwan. "Land grabbing" alone is not the only reason. The main reasons are:

1. Historical and nationalistic reasons

The Communist government of China considers Taiwan a part of China.
After the Chinese Civil War of 1949, the Nationalist government fled to Taiwan, while the Communist Party of China established control over mainland China.

According to China, the reunification of China is incomplete. Taiwan's separation is considered against China's national unity. President Xi Jinping calls it part of "Chinese Rejuvenation."

2. The legitimacy and power of the Communist Party

For the Chinese government, Taiwan is not only a foreign policy issue, but also a domestic political issue.

If Taiwan remains separate,
it could undermine China's nationalist narrative.
This could also lead to questions within China about why the "One China" policy has not been fulfilled.

Therefore, the CPC links the Taiwan issue to its political legitimacy and national pride.

3. Strategic and military importance

Taiwan's position in the Pacific Ocean is crucial. If China gains control of Taiwan, its navy will have easy access to the Western Pacific. The strategy of the United States and its allies would be weakened. This is why the United States and Japan consider Taiwan so important.

4. Technology and Semiconductors

Taiwan is the world's largest advanced chip manufacturer . Taiwan produces the world's most advanced semiconductors, which are used in AI, smartphones, supercomputers, missiles, fighter jets, and modern weapons. Control over Taiwan could give China a significant advantage in technology and supply chains.


5. Democracy vs. One-Party Rule

Taiwan is a successful democracy, while China is a one-party communist regime.
Beijing fears that a democratic, prosperous society with Chinese language and culture
could become an alternative model for the Chinese people. Therefore, Taiwan's continued isolation and democracy is also considered an ideological challenge to China's political model.


6. US-China Power Struggle
Taiwan has become the center of global competition between the US and China.
China believes that the US is using Taiwan to contain China.
US support for Taiwan poses a threat to China's security.

 China has been deliberately sending its aircraft, warships and missiles around Taiwanese territory for a long time.

Although China has never exercised de facto control over Taiwan, it considers Taiwan an integral part of China, whose "reunification" with mainland China should occur. China prioritizes peaceful reunification, but will not shy away from the use of force to achieve its goal.

What would happen if there was a China-Taiwan war?

Taiwan produces approximately 65% ​​of the world's semiconductors and 90% of the most advanced chips. A conflict between China and Taiwan would severely disrupt global supply chains. A war would severely damage the global economy and could lead to major sanctions against China.

The Joe Biden administration continued many of the Trump administration's policies in response to China's growing aggression. In May 2022, President Biden stated that the United States was committed to defending Taiwan if necessary.

India's relations with Taiwan and India's stand on Taiwan.

India and Taiwan do not have formal diplomatic relations, as India officially recognizes the "One China Policy." Therefore, the two countries do not have embassies. However, informal relations are maintained through the Trade and Cultural Office.

Despite the absence of formal diplomatic relations between India and Taiwan, a multifaceted partnership based on technology, trade, and strategic interests is developing. Taiwan's new Southward-Looking Policy and India's "Make in India" initiative have led to bilateral trade reaching a historic high of nearly $1 billion.

Taiwan recently surpassed India in terms of total stock market capitalization. This is largely due to the meteoric rise in the shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world's leading semiconductor company.

Economic and technological synergy

Taiwan serves as a key partner in India's goal of becoming a global electronics and semiconductor hub, and economic ties are rapidly expanding. Major Taiwanese electronics companies, such as Foxconn, Wistron, and Pegatron, have invested heavily in India.
Cooperation in wafer production, semiconductor packaging, and hardware is growing, helping India reduce its trade dependence on mainland China.

Many Taiwanese companies are investing in India, particularly in electronics manufacturing,
chip supply chains, mobile manufacturing, semiconductor, and technology cooperation.
Economic, technological, educational, and strategic cooperation between the two countries has grown rapidly in recent years. Taiwan provides scholarships to Indian students, and

India officially supports peace in the Taiwan Strait. China often objects whenever relations between India and Taiwan strengthen. Other countries should limit official contact with Taiwan. Taiwan should not receive a separate political identity.




The European Union and most European countries' stance on Taiwan is considered "balanced but cautious." Europe officially adheres to the People's Republic of China's "One China Policy," meaning it does not formally recognize Taiwan as a separate sovereign country. However, European countries are steadily strengthening their economic, technological, and political ties with Taiwan.

US-Taiwan relations

1. “One China Policy” and the US stance

In 1979, the United States established official diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China and recognizes Beijing as the legitimate government of China. However, the United States does not fully recognize Taiwan as part of China and considers Taiwan's status undetermined. The United States may sell arms to Taiwan,
will help maintain its self-defense capabilities, and will oppose any coercion or use of force. However, this law does not obligate the United States to directly engage in hostilities.

2. Why does the US support Taiwan?

Taiwan occupies a crucial position in the Pacific Ocean. If China gains control of Taiwan, its navy will become more powerful in the Western Pacific, potentially weakening US influence. The US
views Taiwan as a vital element in balancing China's growing influence. The US sells Taiwan advanced weapons, provides military training, and maintains a naval presence. The US will defend Taiwan if necessary.

3. Semiconductors and Technology

Taiwan produces the world's most advanced chips.

These chips are used in AI, iPhones, supercomputers, missiles, fighter jets, and American defense technology, so Taiwan's security is also linked to America's technological and economic security.

China often conducts military exercises, sends warships, and fighter jets around Taiwan whenever US leaders visit.

Impact of the Sino-Taiwanese War on India.

If a war breaks out between China and Taiwan, its impact will not be limited to Asia, but will impact the politics, economy, and security of the entire world. India will also not be untouched by this.

1. Impact on Trade and Economy:

Taiwan is the world's largest center for semiconductor (chip) production. A large portion of the chips used in mobile phones, computers, cars, and modern weapons come from Taiwan. In the event of war, the supply chain could be disrupted, making electronic goods more expensive worldwide, including in India.

2. Tensions in India-China Relations:

India and China already have border disputes. If China attacks Taiwan, its aggressive stance in Asia could escalate. This could force India to maintain extra vigilance on its borders, especially in the Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh regions.

3. Strategic Shifts in the Indo-Pacific Region:

India is a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), which also includes the United States, Japan, and Australia. In the event of a China-Taiwan war, India could face pressure to increase strategic cooperation with its allies.

4. Impact on global markets and oil prices

The war may increase instability in global markets. Oil and gas prices may increase due to disruption of sea trade routes, which will have a direct impact on India's economy and inflation.

5. Security and military preparedness

If a major war breaks out in Asia, India may have to increase its naval and air force activities. India will also have to keep a close watch on China's military activities in the Indian Ocean region.

6. Diplomatic balance

India officially respects the "One China Policy", but maintains relations with Taiwan in the fields of trade, technology and education. In the event of a war, India may have to maintain a balance between America and China.

AMERICAN PRESEDENT TRUMP KI CHINA VISIT-

Geopolitical relations are constantly shifting in a changing world. Following Donald Trump's recent visit to China and US-China talks, many experts are questioning whether America's Taiwan policy is undergoing a change.

Although the US has not yet officially changed its "One China Policy," recent events have certainly increased Taiwan's biggest concerns. While the Trump administration talks about selling arms and strategic support to Taiwan, it also appears to be emphasizing trade deals and diplomatic understanding with China. Recent

tensions between the US and Iran, and growing concerns about the security of the Strait of Hormuz, have also influenced US strategy. Due to its preoccupation with the Middle East, some analysts believe that America's overall focus on the Indo-Pacific may weaken in the future. For this reason, experts express the possibility that China may further expand its strategy to occupy Taiwan in the future.